FEB 2001
RESEARCH

Superstitious minds
the need to believe

Macquarie University PhD research has found that even sceptics will turn to superstitious strategies in times of desperation.

Macquarie researcher, and self-declared sceptic, Dr Trevor Case, wanted to explore the psychology of superstition. His PhD thesis, titled The need to believe: motivation, disposition and superstition, was supervised by Dr Julie Fitness from the University's Psychology Department.

"There have been many studies into the types of people who believe in superstition, their education, personalities and the like, with no conclusive results because people from all backgrounds and personalities can believe," Case says.

"Little work has been carried out into why people embrace superstition, and I was interested in this because humans have believed in superstition, magic, the supernatural and the afterlife since ancient times. It seems to be an important part of everyday human experience. And surprisingly, people still have these beliefs despite unprecedented developments in science and technology."

For the purposes of his research Case defined superstitions as explanations for phenomena that contravene fundamental assumptions of science and lack scientific supporting evidence. "This means not only the traditional superstitions like black cats, Friday the 13th, and not walking under ladders or stepping on cracks, but also predictors of the future like tarot cards, astrology and ESP, and even belief in ghosts," he says.

A 1997 Bulletin Morgan Poll of 609 Australian adults found a significant number of people believed in some kinds of supernatural or superstitious phenomena. Sixty-eight per cent of respondents believed in psychic healing, 42 per cent believed in predicting the future, 42 per cent believed in angels, 40 per cent believed in ghosts, and 31 per cent believed in alien visitors.

"Despite the widespread belief in ESP, fortune telling and astrology, scientific evidence does not support the existence of such phenomena. Empirical investigations have not been able to prove that the alignment of the stars and planets determines particular personality types or that we can predict the future based on the astrology," Case says.

"People tend to believe statements that are positive, general and vague - the kind that we see in astrological and psychic predictions. We tend to pay attention to information that confirms our hypothesis," he adds.

Case points to a popular anecdote often used as an example of ESP. "When you are thinking of a friend and then all of a sudden that friend rings you out of the blue, this is often attributed to ESP. But what about all the occasions where you were thinking of them and they didn't call, or the times when you're not thinking of them and they do call? People tend not to remember occasions when their hypothesis is not confirmed," he says.

Self-declared sceptic and superstition researcher, Trevor Case

Case referred to historical evidence of magical rituals used in situations of danger or uncertainty. For instance Malinowskis's anthropological research in 1925 on the Trobiand Islanders showed the Trobiands depended solely on their reliable netting techniques when fishing in the safe and certain confines of an inner lagoon. However, the uncertain and dangerous activity of fishing in the open sea was steeped in magical ritual.

He also gave the well-known example of superstition in sport. "Most sportspeople will say they don't really believe in the various superstitions they use, like lucky socks, underpants, or putting the right boot on before the left. But all the same they say they'd be mad not to use their superstition. How would they feel if they decided not to wear the lucky red underpants and then they lost the game?"

Case puts it all down to the need to feel in control. "Superstition might represent attempts to obtain a sense of control under conditions of threat and uncertainty. How can wearing red underpants influence the outcome of a sporting match? People don't really believe that it does, but the superstition provides a feeling of control in a situation of uncertainty," he says.

He points out that there are two forms of control: primary control, which occurs when people can directly influence actions and outcomes, and secondary control, which occurs when people attempt to feel in control even when it is not possible to control an outcome.

Case undertook a series of experiments to investigate whether superstitious strategies represented primary or secondary control. His premise was that if people really believe that superstition works then they would use their superstitious strategy to directly control outcomes all the time, and this would represent primary control. However, if they used superstition as secondary control then they would only use their superstitious strategy when they were really desperate and had given up hope of directly controlling the situation through other means.

His studies featured a series of chance-determined tasks with varied outcomes and varied probabilities of success. In each experiment, one group of first-year students were given the option of using the advice of a psychic, while another group was given the option of using the advice of an academic or a fellow student. For each study, Case measured the number of times the participants opted to use the psychic compared to the number of times they used the academic or fellow student, and under what circumstances they resorted to the psychic. He also measured their belief in psychic ability.

Case explains that while the circumstances of each experiment varied, the results were consistent across the board. When the probability of success was high, no one used the psychic. Once the probability of success decreased, students used the psychic more, and then when the probability was very low, use of the psychic increased substantially. However, when he measured the students' belief in psychic powers he found no association between such beliefs and the use of the psychic.

"It didn't matter whether they believed in the superstitious strategy or not, they still used the psychic every time they felt desperate," he says.

"This shows that people tend to use superstitious strategies when their control is most threatened even when they say they do not believe in the effectiveness of these strategies. If they really believed in their superstitious strategy they would use it all the time because they were sure it worked, but the fact that they only resorted to the strategy when they were most fraught indicated they were using superstition as a means of secondary control."

"Control leads to a lot of positive benefits," Case adds. "It enables us to maximise our desired outcomes and minimise aversive outcomes. Perceptions of control lead to increased self-esteem and psychological and physical well-being, while perceptions of not being in control produce feelings of helplessness and have other negative consequences."

This finding might explain why in times of economic depression, sales of astrology books soar. Just like the red underpants, do we really believe the stars will help us out of an economic slump or do we just need to do something to make us feel more in control of our fates?

Story by Kathy Vozella
Photo by Michelle Wilson

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